“Don’t simply retire from something; have something to retire to.”
-Harry Emerson Fosdick
Here’s what you need to know this week:
- Stocks posted a slight decline last week due to Middle East uncertainty
- The US and Israel carry out “major combat operations” in Iran
The Calm Before
Markets were uneasy last week as investors braced for escalating tensions in the Middle East. Stronger-than-expected earnings reports from large companies such as Nvidia failed to shake the market out of its malaise, and a hotter-than-expected wholesaler inflation report barely registered as all eyes stayed focused on Iran. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ all fell roughly 0.5% on the week, keeping all three in the holding pattern they’ve maintained so far this year. Now let’s get to the real news.
The Storm
The US and Israel carried out joint strikes on Iran late Friday evening, marking the most direct military action the US has taken in the Middle East since the withdrawal from Iraq. US and Israeli airstrikes have successfully hit key targets across Iran, most notably killing the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Iran has responded with strikes of its own, bombing multiple US military bases as well as major targets in Israel:
President Trump called on Iranian citizens to reclaim their government from the fundamentalist faction, stating that they may not get another opportunity for decades[1]. An extended conflict in the Middle East would cause a myriad of market disruptions, but the most immediate and obvious disruption is the oil trade. Roughly 20% of all oil globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea[2]. Iran borders the northern side of the Strait while Oman borders the south; the conflict alone would be enough to slow traffic through the Strait, but Iran has vowed to attack any ship passing through the Strait in an attempt to gain leverage in the conflict. Oil shippers have taken this threat seriously and tankers are piling up on both sides of the Strait:
While a few ships are still clearing their way out of the Strait, the oil traffic through the Strait has fallen from 18 million barrels per day to zero:
The price of oil began rising in January as Middle East tensions rose, but you can see below that the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have supercharged the rise:
As of writing, the price of Brent crude (the international benchmark for crude oil prices) has risen more than 15% over the last week and is flirting with $80 per barrel. Things are moving quickly as they usually do in these types of conflicts; in fact, I just got a notification that President Trump is threatening to cut off all trade with Spain unless they give the US access to its military bases right as I was writing this sentence. Both the US government and Wall Street analysts expect this conflict to reach a quick resolution, but this situation will likely occupy the bulk of the market’s attention over the next few weeks.
What Else
- Netflix bowed out of the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery, clearing the way for Paramount Skydance to acquire the media conglomerate
- North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un has made overtures to the US in light of the war in Iran
- Russia accepted US proposals for post-war security guarantees for Ukraine, paving the way for a larger ceasefire agreement
- The 2026 midterm election primaries begin this week
- Another winter storm is headed for the East Coast this weekend
What We’re Reading
Scientists are studying so-called “super-agers”, people over the age of 80 who boast the memory capacity of a person decades younger. Examinations of the brains of deceased super-agers show that they have twice as many new neurons as a typical healthy older adult. A long-term study followed super-agers to observe their habits to learn what keeps a brain young as you age; click below to learn for yourself!
What’s Happening Downtown
The Myriad Gardens is hosting Oklahoma Garden School this Saturday, March 7th. This event runs from 8:00 AM to 4:00 PM and features classes on how to design and create a garden as well as how to protect your garden from storms, bugs and other hazards. The event costs $50 for Myriad Garden members and $80 for non-members, and both breakfast & lunch will be provided for attendees. Click below to learn more:
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Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess