“Autumn is a second spring where every leaf is a flower.”
-Albert Camus
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Stocks brush new all-time highs
· A court ruling sets up a September showdown surrounding tariffs
Strong August
Stocks closed last week at a very slight decline of 0.1% after reaching new all-time highs on Thursday. Still, markets posted another strong month with the S&P 500 gaining 1.9% in August. Friday also saw the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for the month of July. This report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and July’s report showed prices rising at an annualized rate of 2.6%, the same rate as in June:
This report is roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. While this is still above the Fed’s long-term target of 2% annualized, investors have shifted priorities in light of Fed Chairman Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole symposium. You may remember from last week’s newsletter that Powell announced the Fed will now be more focused on unemployment than inflation. As you can see on the chart below, ongoing inflation has declined precipitously from the highs of 2022 while unemployment has slowly but steadily risen:
Tariff Standoff
Stocks have been mostly flat this week which is typical for Labor Day week. Investors are already contending with a shortened week and many investors, clients, executives, etc. are returning to work after a Labor Day vacation. The one major headline is a court ruling temporarily invalidating some of President Trump’s tariff plans.
On Friday evening the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were illegal, upholding an earlier ruling from the Court of International Trade. The court specifically took umbrage with Trump using the presidential power of declaring a national emergency to implement tariffs, duties or other taxes[1].
President Trump excoriated the ruling on Truth Social and indicated he will continue to challenge this ruling, and the case currently looks bound for the Supreme Court[2]. Stocks initially sold off on Tuesday due to renewed tariff uncertainty, but investors quickly shook off the anxiety and stocks are nearing new all-time highs at the time of writing. Tomorrow we will receive the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for August and this report will be the first major employment indicator since the Federal Reserve shifted focus.
What Else
· HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is testifying before Congress after proposing controversial funding cuts to multiple federal health initiatives
· Stephen Miran is also testifying before Congress in a confirmation hearing to become a Federal Reserve Governor
· Indian officials have held high-profile trade meetings with both China and Russia in a public rebuke of President Trump’s tariffs
· Israel has resumed operations in Gaza after a brief pause to allow humanitarian aid
· The NFL season starts this week while college football heads into week 2
What We’re Reading
A Lake Michigan tour guide was scanning satellite photos for new tour ideas when he noticed a strange discoloration in the lake water. Upon further investigation, tour guide Matt Olson realized he had discovered the long-lost remains of the Frank D. Barker, a vessel that mysteriously sank in 1887. Click below to see photos of the shipwreck and read what investigators have learned about the ill-fated voyage:
What’s Happening Downtown
Scissortail Park will host the Festival of Joy this Sunday, September 7th. This event is conducted by local Hindu and Indian group and features parades, yoga classes, dance classes and tons of traditional Indian food! Click below to learn more:
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess