“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.”
-Thomas Edison
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Stocks chart new all-time highs for the first time since February
· Investors digest wars, trade deals and tax bills as we head into the second half of 2025
Back On Top
Markets reached new all-time highs on Friday, marking the first new highs since February 19th. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices both reached new highs on Friday while the Dow Jones still lags its own high watermark by ~2%, and all three indices have continued to gain ground this week. Investors have had a plethora of issues to contend with over the past 4.5 months: a new trade war, a potential war simmering in the Middle East, stubbornly high interest rates and inflation, the list goes on.
Of course, there are always reasons to worry about investing, and most of them end up looking small in hindsight:
Investors are obviously pleased to close out the first half of 2025 on a high note, but many of the concerns mentioned above are still seeking resolution as we head into July.
Second Half
The next two weeks have potential to shake up markets in either direction due to multiple catalysts all hitting at roughly the same time. The first is the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of exchanging missile fire. President Trump has been brokering a (hopefully) longer-lasting treaty and said that “the war is over for now” during a speech at a NATO summit at The Hague last Thursday[1].
Next is Trump’s first key piece of legislation, dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” by the President. The bill survived a narrow 51-49 vote in the Senate to advance it to the floor for debates and amendments before sending it back to the House of Representatives. Senators from both parties are jockeying for concessions before promising their votes, and House Reps are communicating their own demands before the bill returns to their chamber. President Trump has set a goal of July 4th for final passage of the bill, putting Congress in a time crunch[2].
Last is President Trump’s trade war. Trump initially announced his tariff package on April 2nd and sparked an immediate deep selloff in stocks; this selloff reversed dramatically on April 8th when he announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs. This pause is set to expire in just six days on July 8th.
The last ninety days are not without progress. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to a trade framework between the US and China after multiple meetings in Geneva and London. This framework does not completely ameliorate trade issues between the two countries but has made significant progress on the two most sensitive trade categories: semiconductors and rare earth minerals[3].
There are also reports of progress with other countries. US officials have been meeting with trade envoys from several large trade partners such as the European Union, India, Vietnam and Japan, and claim that preliminary deals are close[4]. With one week left until the tariff pause ends, it seems likely that we will see a flurry of deals in the coming days.
What Else
· The nonfarm payrolls report for June will be released tomorrow; economists expect the report to show US job gains of 110,000
· Israel has increased airstrikes on the Gaza Strip despite President Trump’s calls for an immediate ceasefire
· Elon Musk has threatened to create a new political party called the “America Party” in response to complaints over the growing national deficit
· The NBA Summer League starts this Saturday, July 5th
· Markets will close on Friday in observance of Independence Day
What We’re Reading
A large fireball streaked across the sky in the Southeastern US last Thursday and was the largest chunk of quick meteor shower. The falling debris was bright enough to see during the day and multiple citizens recorded video of the fireball falling from the sky. One household in South Carolina even had a chunk of meteor crash through their roof and implant into their floor. Click below to see footage of the meteor and read first-hand accounts from people who saw it:
· https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/meteor-fireball-southeast-carolina-georgia-rcna215341
What’s Happening Downtown
The OKC Philharmonic is hosting Red White & Boom in Scissortail Park tomorrow night, July 3rd. This Independence Day celebration is free to attend and features a concert by the OKC Philharmonic followed by a fireworks show. Click below to learn more:
· https://www.okcphil.org/rwb/?mc_cid=1bb51740fd&mc_eid=71bf387036
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Jenni Hess