“Don’t watch the clock, do what it does: keep going.”
-Sam Levenson
Here’s what you need to know this week:
- Markets continue to gain in spite of the Iran war
- The Federal Reserve meets under increased scrutiny
- Sell in May and go away?Not so fast
No News is Good News
Stocks extended their winning streak last week and are on pace to post one of the best monthly performances in years.The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both charted new all-time highs and the Dow Jones is just below its own record high:
This march higher comes despite a lack of progress in peace negotiations with Iran. President Trump canceled a plan for US negotiators to visit Pakistan to meet with Iranian officials saying “We have all the cards”[1]. The truce in Lebanon is still technically in effect although Israel and Hezbollah traded blows over the weekend.
Powell’s Last Meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) have been meeting over the last two days and will announce their decision regarding interest rate policy later this afternoon. Observers overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady and will instead focus on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference following the interest rate announcement. Powell’s term is slated to end next month, and now that the Department of Justice has dropped their investigation into Powell it appears that President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is on track to succeed Powell.
Analysts will parse Powell’s comments as to the future of the Fed. Powell has been influential as Chairman and many other voting members share his outlook on inflation and employment. The war in Iran has complicated the inflation outlook and prevented the Federal Reserve from cutting rates so far this year. Tomorrow we will receive the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for March; the PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and Wall Street analysts expect the report to show annualized inflation at 3.5%. This would be a significant jump from the 2.8% rate in February and much higher than the Fed’s target rate of 2%. Additionally, the price of gas continues to climb, implying inflation may remain higher for the rest of the year[2].
Stay in May?
The investing world is full of quips and quotes: “Be greedy when others are fearful”, “A penny saved is a penny earned”, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch”, etc. A popular refrain among long-time investors is “sell in May and go away” due to the stock market’s trend of underperforming during the summer months, but is that actually the case?
As you can see, the stock market has been positive nine out of the last ten years in the six-month period beginning in May. You see, the “sell in May” phenomenon began in the 1920s when big market players and fund managers would abscond from Wall Street to the Hamptons for the summer, leaving their funds on autopilot with more junior traders. As technology and investors have grown more sophisticated, trading volume remains high year-round regardless of fund managers’ vacation schedules.
Does this mean we should throw out all the old folksy sayings? Of course not, you shouldn’t “throw the baby out with the bathwater”. However, this highlights that some trends change over time and conventional wisdom can change as conventions change.
What Else
- The Secret Service apprehended an attempted shooter at the White House Correspondent’s dinner on Saturday
- Artificial intelligence firm Anthropic has become the first private company to be valued at more than $1 trillion
- Hamas is close to nominating a new leader, potentially paving the way for a sustained peace deal in Gaza
- Ukraine has warned Israel not to accept a shipment of grain from Russia, claiming that the grain was stolen from Ukraine
- An F4 tornado struck Enid and the surrounding area last week, marking the largest tornado of the season
- The OKC Thunder defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-0 and move on to the second round of the NBA Playoffs
What We’re Reading
With summer fast approaching, many people are looking to book their first warm weather excursion of the year. If you’re a nature lover looking for a broad range of experiences then Sedona, Arizona may be your next destination. World Atlas spotlighted Sedona as a great location for hiking, stargazing, birdwatching and more. Click below to see photos of Sedona and a selection of their nature outings:
What’s Happening Downtown
The 2026 season for the OKC Farmer’s Market officially kicks off this Saturday, May 2nd. Click below for the full list of vendors, parking directions, and a new video series documenting the practices of our local farmers:
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Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess
[1] NYT [2] Yahoo! Finance