“The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.”
-Walt Disney
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Stocks catch a boost and restart their winning streak
· A potential Iran deal sends markets higher
Snapback
Markets ended their two-week losing streak last week as A.I. stocks posted a strong rebound. These market gains were driven by the Federal Reserve deciding to hold interest rates steady and another encouraging inflation report. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed’s resolve to tame inflation while refusing to give any clues as to the Fed’s next move[1].
Investor optimism was also bolstered by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for the month of June. The PCE report is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, and the report showed annualized inflation falling to 3.7% from a three-year high of 4.1% in May:
Additionally, the report showed monthly inflation at -0.1%, the first negative monthly print since 2020. As you can see on the chart above, we still have a way to go before reaching the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, but for now things appear to be moving in the right direction.
A Real Deal?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but multiple outlets are reporting that the US and Iran are closing in on a significant peace deal that will cease fighting in the region and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar announced yesterday morning that a deal is being circulated between both parties although Qater stopped short of offering a timeline on the negotiations[2].
Oil prices have fallen as a result of these negotiations. As of writing, Brent Crude (the benchmark for Middle East oil prices) is hovering around $80/barrel, a significant decline from the $100+ prices less than a month ago:
It’s too early to say whether a true peace deal will materialize this time, but both sides have incentive to wrap this up. Iran is obviously at a military disadvantage and a prolonged conflict will do lasting damage to their economy. On the US side, the Iran war is increasingly unpopular with both investors and the broader electorate, and President Trump likely wants to be able to tout a peace deal heading into the midterm elections. Conditions may improve or deteriorate rapidly like they have in previous negotiations so we can’t get our hopes up yet, but right now the prospect of a peace deal seems to have momentum.
What Else
· The Senate is vetting Todd Blanche for the role of Attorney General, a role he has held on an interim basis since April
· President Trump’s Board of Peace announced it reached a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, although Hamas has yet to begin disarming
· Ukraine struck a warehouse owned by Wildberries, a Russian e-commerce company, as tensions reignite within the region
· The Texas Stock Exchange fully opened this week
· The Pro Football Hall of Fame Enshrinement Festival starts tomorrow and runs through the weekend
What We’re Reading
Archaeologists have discovered hundreds of gigantic geometric glyphs carved into the ground in the southern Amazon rainforest. Some of the glyphs date back more than 2,500 years, evidence of an advanced civilization millennia before the Spanish and Portuguese arrived in South America. Click below to read more about the discovery and to see aerial photographs of the glyphs:
What’s Happening Downtown
Scissortail Park is hosting TailSpin: A Scissortail Park Music Festival this Friday and Saturday. The festival is free to attend and runs from 6 – 10 PM on Friday and 4 – 10 PM on Saturday. Click below to see the full artist lineup and more:
· TailSpin: A Scissortail Park Music Festival
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess, Hannah Hartman