“Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth.”
-John F. Kennedy
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Stocks continue to rally on A.I. optimism and a strong jobs report
· Markets grapple with the impact of rising oil prices
Roaring Rally
Stocks extended their dramatic winning streak last week and continue to chart new highs. This white-hot rally has been fanned higher by a combination of strong corporate earnings (particularly in companies involved in the development in artificial intelligence) and the backdrop of a strong economy. Last Friday we received the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for the month of April and the report showed the US economy adding 115,000 jobs:
The report also showed unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The strong job gains in March and April mark the strongest two-month rise in employment since 2024, assuaging fears that A.I. development will lead to widespread unemployment.
Inflation Anxiety
The conflict in Iran still seems far from a resolution and the sharp rise in oil prices continues to grow and bleed into broader inflation. President Trump told reporters on Sunday that Iran’s most recent proposal was “totally unacceptable” while Iranian leadership vowed to “never bow” to US negotiators[1]. While crude oil prices have only climbed modestly over the last two weeks, the price at the pump has risen as suppliers brace for a supply shortage:
Additionally, we received the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the month of April yesterday and the impact of rising oil prices is becoming apparent. The report showed annualized inflation at 3.8%, the highest annualized print since May 2023:
Even “core CPI” which strips out food and energy prices due to volatility has begun to rise. The real risk of elevated oil prices over an extended period is that it drives prices up for everything. Deliveries cost more due to fuel for trucks, ships and airplanes, and corporations will pass those costs along to consumers as long as consumers can afford it. Looking back over the past 55 years, nearly every major inflation spike was driven by an oil supply disruption (2000s housing bubble being the lone exception):
Stocks continue to disregard this threat in favor of optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, but these charts will continue to exacerbate until a solution with Iran is achieved.
What Else
· President Trump heads to China today for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping
· Russian President Vladimir Putin said he believes the Russia-Ukraine war is “coming to an end”
· An American has tested positive for the Andes variant of the deadly hantavirus that has virologists concerned
· Famed naturalist David Attenborough celebrated his 100th birthday on Friday
· The Washington Wizards won the #1 draft pick in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery
· The OKC Thunder swept the Los Angeles Lakers and are headed to the Western Conference Finals
What We’re Reading
The truth is, maybe, out there? The Pentagon released thousands of previously classified files regarding the existence of UFOs. The files include pictures and videos as well as eyewitness reports; some have called the release underwhelming while others claim this is a critical step towards proof of extraterrestrial life. Click below to read a summary of the release and to view the pictures and videos to decide for yourself:
What’s Happening Downtown
The Oklahoma Opry will be hosting a show this Friday, May 16th at the American College of Music in Bricktown. The Opry will be hosting multiple shows at ACM this Spring while they finish constructing their new permanent venue next to ACM on the Bricktown Canal. The show runs from 7:00 to 9:30 and tickets are $20, click below to learn more and purchase your tickets:
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess
[1] CNBC