“The only place where success comes before work is in the dictionary.”
-Vidal Sassoon
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Markets continue their optimistic streak
· Stocks post new highs on soft inflation report
Feeling Good
Stocks extended their winning streak last week on multiple optimistic signals. President Trump’s tariffs finally took effect after their August 7th deadline, and while many analysts expect longer-term effects from the tariffs, markets clearly appreciated some clarity on the tariff plan. In fact, the S&P 500 posted its best week since late June:
Rate Reprieve
Stocks have further extended gains this week with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posting new all-time highs. The gains were driven by this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the month of July. The report showed monthly inflation increasing by 0.3% and annualized inflation increasing by 2.7%[1].
These numbers mark an ongoing increase in the rate of inflation, but were notably below Wall Street estimates of 2.9% annualized. This report dramatically increased the odds of an interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. As of writing, the bond market is assigning a 93.8% chance of a 0.25% rate cut next month and a 6.2% chance of a jumbo cut of 0.50%[2]. In other words, the bond market is viewing a rate cut as a virtual certainty and are now debating the size of the cut.
Of course, not everyone is feeling so optimistic. In particular, analysts are concerned about core CPI, which strips out the more volatile categories of food and energy. Core CPI has consistently outpaced vanilla CPI since 2023 and rose back above 3% in July:
It may take time for the effects of the new tariffs to fully filter into markets and may add to inflation once they do, but it will likely take time to show up in the data. For now, markets appear to be pleased with the removed uncertainty of tariff negotiations. The one exception is China: President Trump finalized a 90-day extension with China this Monday, allowing for additional negotiations through early November[3].
What Else
· President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss a truce between Russia and Ukraine
· Putin is also scheduling a visit to India as the two nations grow closer amid tariff battles with the US
· President Trump nominated Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor
· Israel claims it is preparing to take control of Gaza city
· The price of gold has retreated to $3,400/oz after reaching a new record high of $3,508/oz on Friday
What We’re Reading
James A. Lovell Jr., commander of the famous Apollo 13 space mission, has passed away at the age of 97. Immortalized by Tom Hanks in the Apollo 13 movie, Lovell is famously remembered for his line “Houston, we have a problem”. Click below to read about commander Lovell’s life as well as an in-depth summary of Apollo 13’s harrowing return to Earth:
What’s Happening Downtown
Scissortail Park’s Free Concert Series continues this Saturday, August 16th. This concert is headlined by two bands: Five for Fight and Vertical Horizon. As the name suggests, this event is free to attend but good seats on the great lawn go quickly so make sure to arrive early! Click below to learn more:
· https://www.scissortailpark.org/concerts2025/?mc_cid=5fc4a16357&mc_eid=71bf387036
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Jenni Hess
Sources: [1] Yahoo! Finance [2] CME Group [3] Bloomberg