“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.”
-Benjamin Franklin
Here’s what you need to know this week:
· Stocks gained ground on a short week
· Markets oscillate on rapidly changing news regarding the Iran War
New Chair
Stocks rose last week as markets were formally introduced to Kevin Warsh, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh was nominated by President Trump back in February, confirmed by the Senate in May and officially took over duties from Jerome Powell two weeks ago. Last Wednesday was Warsh’s first press conference as Chairman and he seemed to make a good first impression on the markets.
Some investors and analysts were concerned about Warsh’s independence due to President Trump’s repeated hectoring of previous Chair Powell, but Warsh seemed to assuage those concerns in his opening remarks. Warsh began his presser by asserting that his main focus is reining inflation back towards the Fed’s target of 2% and expressed a willingness to hike interest rates to achieve this goal. Bond traders immediately moved accordingly, and markets are now pricing in a 25 basis point (0.25%)rate hike in September and a second rate hike in December[1].
While interest rate hikes tend to hinder stock market returns, markets gained after Warsh’s speech. An independent Federal Reserve free from political influence is very important for both the financial world and the broader economic landscape, and Warsh’s apparent independence seems to have reassured market participants for now.
Memorandum of Understanding
US and Iranian negotiators concluded negotiations in Switzerland on Sunday with a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that laid out a roadmap for a final peace agreement within 60 days. Investors have received conflicting information from both sides of the conflict regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz, restrictions on Iran’s nuclear aspirations, amounts and conditions for a potential reconstruction fund for Iran, and more[2]. One unambiguous development has been the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with traffic notably increasing over the last week:
However, traffic is still dramatically lower than before the war began:
The price of oil has also responded to the news of a potential deal. Brent crude, the benchmark price of oil in the Middle East, has fallen to $77 per barrel from a high of $122/bbl back in April[3]. There may still be some market volatility as the deal’s details get hammered out but for now it appears negotiations are moving in the right direction.
What Else
· OU won the 2026 Men’s College World Series over UNC
· Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan passed away on Monday at the age of 100
· UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned over the weekend amid mounting pressure from the public and his own party
· Ukraine carried out a massive drone attack on an oil refinery in Moscow in an effort to leverage more concessions in a ceasefire agreement
· The US men’s team plays their next World Cup match against Türkiye tomorrow at 9:00 PM on FOX
· The NBA Draft concludes this afternoon
What We’re Reading
Miles below the surface of the Indian Ocean, marine biologists have discovered a field of fossilized whale bones. This ancient whale graveyard has given birth to new life and is teeming with jellyfish, tubeworms, squat lobsters, clams, sea cucumbers and more. Click below to read more about this discovery and to see photos of this underwater biome:
· Whale Fossils Breed New Life
What’s Happening Downtown
Fourth Fridays returns to the West Village District this Friday, June 26th. Fourth Fridays is a district-wide family-friendly festival with activities, deals from local restaurants and retailers, a bouncy house for children, facepainting and more. Click below for a full list of activities and deals as well as a map of the district:
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess, Hannah Hartman