“The secret to getting ahead is getting started.”
-Mark Twain
Here’s what you need to know this week:
- Stocks end their losing streak and precious metals crater
- A partial government shutdown headlines an otherwise slow week
New Fed Chair
Stocks ended their two-week slide this week on two major pieces of news surrounding the Federal Reserve. The first was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opting to hold interest rates steady, a move widely expected by Wall Street analysts. Current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cited the stabilizing jobs market and easing of tariff impact on prices as reasons to stay optimistic on the economy and this optimism helped drive stock prices higher[1].
The second big story was President Trump announcing his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve on Friday. Warsh is a known quantity to Wall Street, having previously served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011, and historically has been cautious about cutting interest rates unless inflation is effectively curtailed[2]. The selection of Warsh gave investors some confidence that the Federal Reserve will retain its independence in monetary policy.
Why does this matter? The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and investors want monetary policy governed by a committee that is independent of the political machinations in Washington. President Trump has repeatedly threatened the Fed’s independence by publicly hectoring Powell to lower interest rates and opening investigations into Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, investigations that many analysts view as politically motivated.
These threats have made themselves apparent in the markets in two separate ways. The first is the devaluation of the dollar itself: in 2025, the US dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of other currencies, fell more than 9%[3]. The second is the value of precious metals, particularly gold and silver. These metals are seen as safe havens in times of geopolitical uncertainty, and both of them have enjoyed historic runs over the past year. However, both metals saw drastic declines after Warsh’s nomination was announced:
Gold fell 11% on Friday while silver fell more than 25%, the steepest single-day decline for each metal since the 1980s[4]. Both may rebound if uncertainty returns and silver also enjoys some tailwinds from its utility as an electrical conduit, but for now the precious metals trade looks to be in jeopardy.
Shutdown (Again)
The federal government has once again partially shutdown over Congressional disagreements in government spending. Democrats refused to agree to more funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the wake of ICE agents killing two US citizens in Minneapolis, demanding reforms to the controversial department. President Trump and Democratic Senate Leader Chuck Schumer negotiated a bill that will fund the federal government through September 30thand fund the DHS for the next ten days while a more robust DHS funding plan can be constructed, but this bill has been opposed by a contingent of Republicans who oppose constraints on ICE agents’ behavior. Trump posted to his social media site Truth Social on Monday evening and demanded the Republican holdouts vote for the bill as-is and a few have acquiesced, potentially paving the way for the bill to pass later this week[5].
Markets have largely ignored the shutdown so far, but issues may pile up if a deal is not reached soon. The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for the month of December was set to release this Friday but has now been delayed, putting available economic data on an even deeper lag. Experts say that a protracted shutdown may lead to tax filing issues and the closure of multiple departments, exacerbating effects from the last shutdown in the fall. This week investors will be closely monitoring Congress to see if the logjam breaks.
What Else
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is preparing for a trip to India to discuss a new trade agreement, adding new tension to US-Canada trade negotiations
- Israel killed 31 Palestinian civilians in airstrikes over the weekend, once again breaking the ceasefire agreement
- Russia has agreed to temporarily halt airstrikes on Ukrainian capital Kyiv while trilateral negotiations with the US are ongoing
- A US armada has arrived off the coast of Iran and is exercising military drills as President Trump pressures Iranian leadership for a new peace deal
- The New England Patriots take on the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday in Super Bowl LX at 5:30 PM CT on NBC
- The 2026 Winter Olympics begin this Friday in northern Italy; all events will be broadcast on NBC and Peacock
- Punxsutawney Phil has predicted six more weeks of winter
What We’re Reading
NASA’s Artemis II mission is less that one week from its potential launch window and officials are confident that weather will stay clear enough for launch. The mission will take four astronauts to orbit around the moon and will set a record for the furthest that humans have ever left the Earth. Click below to learn more about the mission and the four astronauts ready make history:
What’s Happening Downtown
Riversport OKC is hosting It’s Chili on the River this Saturday, February 7th. This event is a chili cook-off competition and silent auction benefiting the local youth rowing program. Tickets are $25 to enter the competition and $50 for general admission which comes with 5 taste tests and votes. Click below to learn more:
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Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess
Sources: [1] Bloomberg [2] Bloomberg [3] CNBC [4] Yahoo! Finance [5] Bloomberg