“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.”
-Voltaire
Here’s what you need to know this week:
- Stocks gain ground as tariff fears recede
- A delayed inflation report will give clues into a murky economy
- How to spot a scam caller
Upcoming Event
Last call for our upcoming event hosted by EWM advisor Brett Valentine, CFP® focused on protecting and growing your wealth for retirement. This event will be hosted at Hefner Grill on Tuesday, October 28th from 6:00 – 7:30 PM and includes a complimentary dinner. There are still a few seats remaining so click the link below to register before they run out:
Optimism Returns
Stocks bounced back next week on news that the new tariffs on China were likely to be negotiated downwards. President Trump told reporters that the tariffs were “not sustainable” and affirmed that he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are still planning on high-level negotiations with China this week[1]. The new tariffs on China were in response to China announcing new export restrictions on rare earth minerals, several of which are vital components in US electronics. Rare earth minerals are a source of relative strength for China in trade negotiations as they control nearly half of the world’s supply:
However, the US announced a new rare earth minerals deal with Australia on Monday[2]. Australia is also a major supplier of rare earth minerals and this gives US negotiators additional leverage as they head into talks with China at the end of the month.
Inflation Update
The prolonged government shutdown has caused a delay in a myriad of government services, including the monthly inflation reports. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September was scheduled to release on October 15th, but the short-staffed Bureau of Labor Statistics moved the release date to this Friday, October 24th. Analysts expect the report to show annualized inflation at 3.1%, but there are also doubts as to the accuracy of the data due to skeleton crews working during the government shutdown[3].
Either way, this report will be the last critical piece of data before the Federal Reserve meets next Wednesday to determine interest rates. Despite the ambiguity of the current economic picture, investors overwhelmingly expect the Fed to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points (0.25%). As of writing, the bond market is assigning a 96.7% chance of a 25 bp rate cut next Wednesday.
The picture after this meeting is less clear. With no end in sight for the government shutdown, economic data may become more and more murky, and the economic bureaus may stop releasing their reports entirely. The shutdown hasn’t had a major impact on markets yet, but this calm won’t extend indefinitely.
Spotting Scams
I received a distressing call this Monday. A man claiming to be with the OKC Sheriff’s Department informed me that I had missed a jury summons and a warrant was out for my arrest. My first instinct was to assume it was a scam, but he was thorough: he had my real name, my real address and clearly my phone number. He had the other details right: he had the real address for my nearest sheriff’s department, and when I asked why there was no caller ID, he called me from a second phone number that matched the sheriff department’s phone number.
I told him I’d never received a summons and he was reassuring, not threatening. “Just come down to the station and we’ll get this all cleared up”, he said. After all, if he was a scammer then why would he invite me to the police station? However, I had to stay on the line until I got to the police department to prove that I was not a flight risk, and I *also* needed to make a deposit for a bond of $3,000. After all, people with warrants out for their arrest cannot set foot on state property or they will be arrested on sight.
THERE IT WAS. Every phone scam has two critical components:
- Urgency to make a payment immediately
- You *cannot* talk to anyone else about it
This scam was clever; if I hung up then the police would deem me a flight risk. That rules out calling my wife, a lawyer, or anyone else to discuss what’s going on. I told the man on the phone that this call had the two hallmarks of a scam call and he instantly hung up.
I am fortunate that we advisors receive annual training on scams and was able to identify this one correctly, but the sophistication was impressive. Spoofing the real sheriff’s phone number was a new trick I had not expected. However, the two key identifiers of scams will always help you spot a scam caller. No real bank, credit card company, police officer, or any other legitimate institution will demand a payment immediately and expressly discourage you from talking to anyone else. If you are ever uncertain whether you have received a scam call, your first step should be speaking to a trusted family member or friend, or of course our team here at Eternal Wealth Management. We are here to protect your wealth, and that includes protecting you from scams.
What Else
- Vice President JD Vance is visiting Israel to reinforce terms of the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza
- The US has deployed more than 10,000 troops as well as ships and aircraft to the Caribbean Sea, the largest deployment to the region in decades
- Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the White House again to entreat President Trump for more support in the war against Russia
- Legendary guitarist Ace Frehley, best known for his work with the band KISS, passed away at the age of 74
- The Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Toronto Blue Jays in the MLB World Series starting this Friday
- The OKC Thunder raised their championship banner and received their championship rings while tipping off the NBA season last night
What We’re Reading
Six minutes and forty-seven seconds: that’s how long it took jewel thieves to steal eight priceless pieces from the Louvre Museum in France. This daring heist took place in broad daylight and the burglars have thus far evaded capture. Click below to read more details of the heist and to see photos of the stolen jewelry:
What’s Happening Downtown
Midtown is hosting their quarterly Midtown Walkabout this Saturday, October 25th. The event runs from 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM and features deals from dozens of local restaurants and vendors as well as live music and activities like face painting and free fitness classes. Click below to see a full list of participating businesses, activities and a map:
To read more from our blog, click here
Written by: Kane Ogle, CFP®
Steve Beck, Kane Ogle, CFP®, Amber Eduvigen, CFP®, Cale Olbert, CFP®, Brett Valentine, CFP®, Brandon Ingerson, Bill Daniel, Sam Postich, Jenni Hess